NewsletterApril 2007

Presidential Election

After 16 candidates in 2002, a record, there will 12 official candidates for this year’s Presidential Election. To be an official candidate one must get the signatures of 500 elected officials: mayors, members of parliament (cantonal, regional, national and European) and senators. The first round of voting takes place on April 22nd. If no candidate obtains more than 50% (as should be the case) then there will be second round on May 6th between the two top vote getters.

Here is a list of the candidates in official order:
Note: Link goes to candidate's wikipedia entry.

• Olivier Besancenot: Ligue communiste révolutionnaire (Revolutionary Communist League)
• Gérard Schivardi: Parti des travailleurs (Workers' Party)
• Marie-George Buffet: Parti communiste français (French Communist Party)
• François Bayrou: Union pour la démocratie française (United for French Democracy)
• José Bové: No Party
• Dominique Voynet: Les Verts (Greens)
• Philippe de Villiers: Mouvement pour la France (Movement for France)
• Ségolène Royal: Parti Socialiste (Socialist Party)
• Frédéric Nihous: Chasse, pêche, nature, traditions (Hunting, Fishing, Nature, Tradition)
• Jean-Marie Le Pen: Front national (National Front)
• Arlette Laguiller: Lutte ouvrière (Workers Struggle)
• Nicolas Sarkozy: Union pour un Mouvement Populaire (Union for a Popular Movement)

So who will win? The bookmakers in London say Nicolas Sarkozy, as do the polls. He seems to be the best positioned right now but one never ever knows in France. In 1981 most polls showed that François Mitterrand would lose in the second round. He won. In 1995 polls showed that the Socialist Party candidate - Lionel Jospin would not make it into the second round. Not only did he make it into the second round he was the top vote getter in the first. In 2002 no poll predicted that Jean-Marie Le Pen would make it into the second round, he did. If nothing else the night of April 22nd should make for some good excitement.

This campaign has largely focused on economic issues like job security and buying power, unlike in 2002 when crime was the biggest issue. France has had over the last 25 years one of the highest unemployment rates in Europe. As I write this the government released figures showing the unemployment rate at 8.2%, lowest it’s been in 15 years. More and more companies are leaving France and not for low cost countries, like China and Eastern Europe but for other countries in Western Europe. As Frances’s generous welfare state and strict labor laws do not help with competitiveness. No candidate has addressed these issues with specific answers.

Compared to The United States, France has a very different electoral system. For example there is no ballot in the Americans sense. To vote one takes slips of paper with candidates’ names written on them, one for each. Next he or she goes into the voting booth, selects his or her candidate and puts the slip of paper into an envelope. Finally after verifying voter registration, the envelope goes into the ballot box. This is the best part, as once the envelope is in the ballot box. A volunteer poll worker says “A voté” – voted.

Also very different is how the campaign is carried out. There is no political advertising other than flyers and posters and once the official list of candidates was announced each candidate was given equal media time on TV and radio. I’m not sure about newspapers and the internet.

One of the quirks of this campaign is the fact that two candidates one on the right - Nicolas Sarkozy and one on the far left - Olivier Besancenot both have a strong relationship with the town of Neuilly-sur-Seine, a posh suburb of Paris. Nicolas Sarkozy lives there and was mayor for a number of years. And Besancenot? He works there as a postman. Kind of ironic that one candidate could deliver mail to another? N'est pas?

What was thought to be a horse race between Sarkozy and Ségolène Royal turned out to be, for a while a three person show when François Bayrou moved up in the polls to pull even with Royal. Bayrou, who in the past served in right governments has now found a space in the center. Going so far as to say if elected he would form a government of national unity to deal with France’s problems. He even tried to court Socialiste Dominique Strauss-Kahn, to no avail. Bayrou has been able to tap into the resentment many feel in the traditional left-right struggle for power and the sense it’s more about who wins than making France a better place.

Bayrou has been able to court some in Sarkozy’s Union pour un Mouvement Populaire but he can’t seem to get anyone high ranking on the left to support his candidacy. As of this writing he has fallen back in the polls and seems to be stuck behind Royal in third place. But as I said before, polls in the past have been very wrong. We will see on April 22nd.

Related Article:
French Presidential Election 2007